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Fig 2

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Calibration plots showing external validity of the three prognostic models.

(A) PICKUP predicting chronic LBP. (B) Model 2a predicting chronic LBP with high pain. (C) Model 2b predicting chronic LBP with disability. The distribution of predicted risks is shown at the bottom of each plot, by 3-mo outcome. The triangles indicate observed frequencies by decile of predicted risk.