Importance of psychological factors for the recovery from a first episode of acute non-specific neck pain - a longitudinal observational study

doi:10.1186/s12998-016-0090-2

Table 3

Prediction of self-perceived recovery by psychological factors at baseline

	B (SE)	Exp B (Odds Ratio)	95 % CI Exp B	p
Model 1: psychological factors as independent variables
PGIC 1 week ( N = 77):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.02; AUC = 0.58 (95 % CI 0.43–0.72; p = 0.321)
BQ4: anxiety	−0.09 (0.15)	0.92	0.68–1.24	0.572
BQ5: depression	0.07 (0.12)	1.07	0.85–1.35	0.579
BQ6: fear avoidance	−0.01 (0.12)	0.99	0.78–1.25	0.928
BQ7: locus of control	0.09 (0.12)	1.09	0.87–1.36	0.459
PGIC 1 month ( N = 82):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.17; AUC = 0.76 (95 % CI 0.62–0.90; p = 0.002)
BQ4: anxiety	0.44 (0.21)	1.55	1.04–2.32	0.033
BQ5: depression	−0.18 (0.16)	0.83	0.61–1.14	0.247
BQ6: fear avoidance	−0.33 (0.18)	0.72	0.51–1.02	0.061
BQ7: locus of control	0.25 (0.16)	1.28	0.93–1.77	0.529
PGIC 3 months ( N = 80):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.22; AUC= 0.83 (95 % CI 0.72–0.93; p = 0.001)
BQ4: anxiety	0.14 (0.22)	1.15	0.74–1.78	0.529
BQ5: depression	−0.41 (0.21)	0.67	0.45–1.00	0.049
BQ6: fear avoidance	−0.09 (0.18)	0.91	0.64–1.29	0.597
BQ7: locus of control	0.25 (0.18)	1.28	0.91–1.81	0.163
Model 2: signifiant factors of model 1 and age and baseline pain as independent variables
PGIC 1 week ( N = 77):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.001; AUC= 0.52 (95 % CI 0.39–0.66; p = 0.763
Age	−0.001 (0.02)	1.00	0.96–1.04	0.938
Pain at baseline	0.03 (0.14)	0.97	0.74–1.28	0.841
PGIC 1 month ( N = 83):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.18; AUC= 0.74 (95 % CI 0.58–0.90; p = 0.005)
BQ 4: anxiety	0.12 (0.12)	1.12	0.89–1.41	0.321
Age	−0.05 (0.02)	0.95	0.91–0.99	0.021
Pain at baseline	0.20 (0.16)	1.22	0.89–1.68	0.225
PGIC 3 months ( N = 81):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.21; AUC= 0.80 (95 % CI 0.69–0.91; p = 0.002)
BQ 5: depression	−0.26 (0.12)	0.77	0.61–0.98	0.037
Age	−0.04 (0.03)	0.97	0.92–1.02	0.163
Pain at baseline	−0.13 (0.20)	0.88	0.60–1.31	0.536

Logistic regressions with PGIC (0 = not improved, 1 = improved) of each time point as dependent variable and the psychological factors at baseline as independent variables. Multicollinearity diagnostics model 1/model 2: Tolerance: 0.39-0.76/0.89-1.00, VIF: 1.31-2.59/1.00-1.13. Numbers in bold indicate significant results.

AUC area under the receiver operating curve

BQ Bournemouth questionnaire

PGIC patient global impression of change