Importance of psychological factors for the recovery from a first episode of acute non-specific neck pain - a longitudinal observational study

doi:10.1186/s12998-016-0090-2

Table 4

Prediction of self-perceived recovery by changes in psychological factors

	B (SE)	Exp B (Odds Ratio)	95 % CI Exp B	p
Model 1: psychological factors as independent variables
PGIC 1 week ( N = 75):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.05; AUC = 0.62 (95 % CI 0.48–0.76; p = 0.119)
BQ4: anxiety	0.07 (0.10)	1.07	0.88–1.29	0.488
BQ5: depression	0.16 (0.13)	1.17	0.90–1.53	0.235
BQ6: fear avoidance	−0.06 (0.11)	0.95	0.76–1.17	0.603
BQ7: locus of control	0.02 (0.08)	1.02	0.87–1.20	0.806
PGIC 1 month ( N = 80):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.71; AUC = 0.97 (95 % CI 0.94–1.00; p < 0.001)
BQ4: anxiety	0.93 (0.31)	2.53	1.37–4.67	0.003
BQ5: depression	0.44 (0.36)	1.56	0.77–3.15	0.218
BQ6: fear avoidance	0.35 (0.28)	1.42	0.83–2.45	0.204
BQ7: locus of control	0.09 (0.16)	1.09	0.79–1.50	0.598
PGIC 3 months ( N = 75):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.36; AUC = 0.90 (95 % CI 0.82–0.98; p < 0.001)
BQ4: anxiety	0.30 (0.20)	1.35	0.92–1.99	0.123
BQ5: depression	−0.17 (0.18)	0.85	0.85 0.60–1.20	0.352
BQ6: fear avoidance	0.02 (0.15)	1.02	0.76–1.37	0.074
BQ7: locus of control	0.23 (0.13)	1.26	0.98–1.63	0.163
Model 2: signifiant factors of model 1 and age and baseline pain as independent variables
PGIC 1 week ( N = 77):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.001; AUC = 0.52 (95 % CI 0.39–0.66; p = 0.763
Age	−0.001 (0.02)	1.00	1.44–3.54	<0.001
Pain at baseline	0.03 (0.14)	0.97	0.74–1.28	0.841
PGIC 1 month ( N = 83):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.57; AUC = 0.92 (95 % CI 0.85–0.99; p < 0.001)
BQ 4: anxiety	0.81 (0.23)	2.26	1.44–3.54	<0.001
Age	−0.01 (0.03)	1.00	0.95–1.05	0.851
Pain at baseline	0.16 (0.21)	1.17	0.77–1.78	0.454
PGIC 3 months ( N = 82):
Nagelkerke R² = 0.12; AUC = 0.75 (95 % CI 0.63–0.86; p = 0.009)
Age	−0.04 (0.02)	0.96	0.92–1.01	0.111
Pain at baseline	−0.27 (0.19)	0.76	0.53–1.10	0.152

Logistic regressions with PGIC (0 = not improved, 1 = improved) of each time point as dependent variable and the changes in the psychological factors as independent variables. Multicollinearity diagnostics model 1/model 2: Tolerance: 0.42-0.83/0.85-0.97, VIF: 1.20-2.38/1.00-1.18. Numbers in bold indicate significant results.

AUC area under the receiver operating curve

BQ Bournemouth questionnaire

PGIC patient global impression of change